About 3 trillion in short term debt will roll over this year for the US government. Add another 1.5 trillion of revenue deficit to it. About 4.5 trillion will need to financed this year. Good luck trying to get that financed in the market at interest rates near zero. This game is getting interesting. If fed monetizes a large part of it, US will be in a crackup boom. If it lets interest rates rise and lets markets finance it, the economy will go into tailspin. It's possible that it will try a combination of both. That will still lead to a massive crackup boom in certain sectors, followed by a bust few years down the line. But the early part of the crack up boom always feels good.
It's going to be a rocky ride. I am fastening my seat belts.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment