Wednesday, May 27, 2009

My investment plan for this business cycle

Every inflation cycle is different.

Following is my plan for this business cycle.

In the initial stage of inflation -
1. Refinance to a 30 year fixed rate loan at a rate below 5%
2. Buy some of following assets - precious metals, emerging market equities and currencies, Asia, commodities, natural resource companies, some too big to fail banks, healthy American industrial companies, and some junk bonds and prime rate funds. Keep some cash. Subscribe to Barrons.

Intermediate stage of inflation -
After the fed raises interest rates for the first time, become a momentum trader. Subscribe to a momentum trading newspaper like Investor's Business Daily and cancel Barrons. Trade with tight stop losses.

Terminal stage of inflation-
After the fed raises rates by at least 2%, start preparing for deflation and reversal of dollar carry trade. Take profits of assets acquired in the initial stage of inflation. Raise cash. If treasuries are above 5%, start nibbling them. Even if treasuries remain in a secular bear market longer than the business cycle, they will provide a risk free arbitrage due to existing mortgage. Subscribe to Barrons again.

Remember also that markets work through deception.

What is your plan? Please share in the comments section.

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