Sunday, July 20, 2014

What if we had a bull market and nobody came?

Public has not been participating in this relentless rising market. Yet the markets have been rising on back of central bank buying and corporate buybacks. Until there is a death cross (50 dma crosses below 200 dma), this is still a good market to trade up. Buy the dips and sell the rallies.

Sunday, July 6, 2014

Indian government blames the hoarders for inflation but not the central bank

The new Indian government is back to old tricks. They are trying to blame the hoarders for rise in vegetable prices. When stock prices rose five fold between 2004-2008, did you ever hear the term stock hoarder? When real estate prices went through the roof, did you ever hear the term real estate hoarder?

When you print money, it goes into financial assets initially and financial assets become a bubble. If the central bank does not allow financial assets to deflate during an eventual recession, the economy goes into stagflation where commodity prices eventually rise faster than financial assets. What people want is that stocks and real estate should rise 100 fold but commodity prices should not rise at all. That is a mathematical impossibility.  Prices of food items will rise in India even if you destroy all the storage and outlaw hoarding. There is no difference between a hoarder and stock investor. They are both in essence momentum traders. In a money printing environment, prices would rise regardless.
If you want to end inflation, stop money printing. And stop blaming the hoarder. Prices have been rising for sixty years, ever since silver coinage was removed. Could anyone have hoarded onions for six decades? Also, why are milk prices rising? Are cows hoarding the milk? 

Sunday, March 9, 2014

Where are we in the business cycle?

We are in a late business cycle. This is when momentum traders make money. Early part of the business cycle is when you can be a value oriented long term business cycle and later part is when you have to be a momentum trader with tight stop losses. It's still too early to go short. However selloffs in treasury bonds can also be looked at buying opportunity.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

The Hindu trinity and the separation of powers into legislative, executive and judiciary

The Indian trinity consists of Brahma, Vishnu and Shiva. Brahma, the creator of laws, is the legislative branch. Vishnu is the executive branch of the government. Shiva is the judicial branch of the government. Brahma has only one temple left. The legislative branch loses all it's power over time. Shiva, the judicial branch, retains some influence. But it is the executive branch or Vishnu that emerged as the most powerful deity over time. An interventionist Vishnu took incarnations of different animal and human forms and tried to set things right. But that did not prevent the kaliyuga or dark ages from happening.

As the American democracy matures, these are things to ponder over.

Monday, June 10, 2013

Surveillance state no longer a conspiracy theory...........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UL8q0xv8gUY

Wasn't in 1984 but in 2014. Welcome to Obamanation where Snowden goes to jail but Corzine goes free.

Every post (including this one) is being recorded for eternity by NSA. And google, yahoo, facebook, apple, microsoft are all involved.

Monday, March 18, 2013

In Cyprus, bond holders made whole but not insured depositors

More evil solutions in Cyprus

Ordinarily, you would expect shareholders to be wiped out first, followed by preferred shareholders  and then bondholders. And only then should uninsured depositors be touched. The insured depositors should pay only when the insurance provider becomes bankrupt. Or at least, that is what the law was before the weekend. But in socialism, the only law is what a dozen bureaucrats decide to do.  Is it also possible that the German and French banks sold CDS on Cypriot bonds? And they do not want to pay. So, eurocrat socialists will just make up the new laws as they  help mega German and French banks. Ordinary Cypriots are paying for it. 

Of course, there is always a law of unintended consequences. There will be bank runs all around the Southern Europe and a lot of scared money will be flocking to USD.   US markets may hold up a little longer as it absorbs capital fleeing from the evil clutches of Brussels. 

Saturday, March 10, 2012

ISDA gets some sense and says CDS will trigger

ISDA Says Greece In Default, CDS Will Trigger

Finally, ISDA gets some sense and states that Greece has defaulted and CDS will trigger. It was obvious to everyone else that any other ruling would have shut the CDS markets down as I had blogged recently here ISDA insults our intelligence.