Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Pakistan to enter hyperinflation in next few years

After Zimbabwe, it appears that it is Pakistan's turn to enter hyperinflation.
The budget is double the revenue. It is unsustainable. Army gets bulk of the budget and
is a state within a state. Spending cuts cannot happen. The economy is in a downward spiral. The fall of Pakistani Rupee will only accelerate and hyperinflation will be obvious in the next few years.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Investment Strategy

I am sharing my investment strategy. Please share yours.

My investment strategy -
A business cycle lasts 4-7 years. Go long on certain assets at beginning of the business cycle. After 3 years into the cycle, start selling those assets slowly and raise cash. As the fed raises interest rates, slowly buy government bonds. By buying bonds, you are just front-running the fed because fed will be buying it when the recession hits. Keep selling the assets and raising cash as the cycle matures.
Watch for credit contraction. Once you are sure that we are in credit contraction, go short with some money for extra points. But cover your shorts every 1-2 days.

When fed has done lowering rates, sell the bonds. Slowly, start buying certain assets.

Every business cycle is different. So, you may have to buy different assets in different business cycles. Also, you don't have to be exact in your timing. Just approximate.

Monday, June 14, 2010

Goldman Sachs Has First Quarter With No Trading Loss

Goldman Sachs Has First Quarter With No Trading Loss

"May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s traders made money every single day of the first quarter, a feat the firm has never accomplished before. "

Every single day. That's right - every single day.
Can random walk theorist professors give tuition refund to the MBAs manufactured in the assembly line? This should be proof enough of market manipulation for the nay sayers. I won't hold my breadth.